Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.53 – 170.54

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.1 ±11

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 76.63Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 76.57Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 28.33Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.5 ±12.2

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 65.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 61.42Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 43.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2926, 10416, 6845

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2926, 10416, 6845

Auto

24.2 14%

Teleop

103.9 58%

Endgame

51.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10423, 8532, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10423, 8532, 4061

Auto

38.3 23%

Teleop

82.8 49%

Endgame

47.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.5pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11
Score range: 138–215
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 183.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.1Season APEX249.5

24.2Auto38.3

103.9Teleop82.8

51.1Endgame47.2

38Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	30
teleop	122	89
endgame	84	36
foul	0	0
total	211	155

Result

Final score

211 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Match videos

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