Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.17 – 131.97

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 110.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.5 ±11

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 103.27Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 81.54Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 28.36Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.5 ±11.1

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 25.54Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 81.54Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 24.89Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3218, 4125, 4060

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3218, 4125, 4060

Auto

36.8 18%

Teleop

129.7 65%

Endgame

33.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4513, 5468, 4692

/ 100 compat

Projected

132 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4513, 5468, 4692

Auto

23.6 20%

Teleop

76.1 64%

Endgame

19.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.2pts

Blue projected score132pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.2
Score range: 103–242
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.5Season APEX429.5

36.8Auto23.6

129.7Teleop76.1

33.3Endgame19.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	47
teleop	91	176
endgame	56	77
foul	0	15
total	175	315

Result

Final score

175 – 315

Prediction missed · off by 110.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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