Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.83 – 179.01

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±12.7

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 50.38Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 58.92Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 50.53Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±11.7

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 64.8Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 16.56Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 97.65Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8532, 10423, 4980

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8532, 10423, 4980

Auto

29.3 18%

Teleop

76.1 48%

Endgame

53.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4125, 11347, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

179 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4125, 11347, 753

Auto

18.5 11%

Teleop

106.7 62%

Endgame

47.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.8pts

Blue projected score179pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.2
Score range: 127–212
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 181.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.8Season APEX422.8

29.3Auto18.5

76.1Teleop106.7

53Endgame47.5

50Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	13
teleop	92	145
endgame	56	56
foul	0	5
total	178	219

Result

Final score

178 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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