Qualification · Qualification 51
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
211.93 – 91.99
82%18%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
208 – 122
Prediction correct · off by 17 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 345 ±10.4
Season APEX 120Event APEX 75.42Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 101.24Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 35.27Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.5 ±12.7
Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 36.05Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 54.26Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 1.68Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2926, 3218, 1595
68
/ 100 compatProjected
211.9 pts
~2.4 RP (district)
Teams: 2926, 3218, 1595
Auto
36.9 17%
Teleop
121.5 57%
Endgame
54.0 25%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6443, 4513, 3876
33
/ 100 compatProjected
92 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 6443, 4513, 3876
Auto
18.0 20%
Teleop
68.2 76%
Endgame
3.4 4%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.03
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score211.9pts
Blue projected score92pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample138alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 119.9
- Score range
- 60–244
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
345Season APEX191.5
36.9Auto18
121.5Teleop68.2
54Endgame3.4
19Consistency37
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 41 | 19 |
| teleop | 110 | 61 |
| endgame | 57 | 42 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 208 | 122 |
Result
Final score
208 – 122
Prediction correct · off by 17 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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