Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.09 – 266.18

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.2 ±11.6

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 10.63Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 92.84Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 32.62Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.6 ±10

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 39.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 17.28Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 209.52Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9613, 753, 4692

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9613, 753, 4692

Auto

16.3 13%

Teleop

75.8 59%

Endgame

35.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4061, 4060, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4061, 4060, 9023

Auto

47.3 18%

Teleop

141.2 54%

Endgame

74.2 28%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.1pts

Blue projected score266.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.1
Score range: 104–298
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 179.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.2Season APEX421.6

16.3Auto47.3

75.8Teleop141.2

35.5Endgame74.2

52Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	56
teleop	103	160
endgame	71	58
foul	0	5
total	189	279

Result

Final score

189 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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