Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.65 – 141.86

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.9 ±10

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 58.65Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 25.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 84.54Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.4 ±11.6

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 24.37Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 74.46Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 43.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4513, 1595, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4513, 1595, 2811

Auto

27.5 17%

Teleop

102.4 62%

Endgame

34.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6845, 10416, 6443

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6845, 10416, 6443

Auto

21.4 15%

Teleop

82.2 59%

Endgame

36.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.7pts

Blue projected score141.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.8
Score range: 108–203
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 189.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.9Season APEX236.4

27.5Auto21.4

102.4Teleop82.2

34Endgame36.8

85Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	86	87
endgame	11	56
foul	0	0
total	114	171

Result

Final score

114 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.