Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.5 – 84.01

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.2 ±11.7

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 211.5Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 65.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 60.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.1 ±12.7

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 22.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 14.66Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 46.98Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5468, 2147, 10423

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5468, 2147, 10423

Auto

48.2 15%

Teleop

192.1 58%

Endgame

91.1 27%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3712, 5295, 5920

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3712, 5295, 5920

Auto

11.5 14%

Teleop

42.6 51%

Endgame

28.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score337.5pts

Blue projected score84pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 253.5
Score range: 52–370
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 179.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.2Season APEX174.1

48.2Auto11.5

192.1Teleop42.6

91.1Endgame28.7

72Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	0
teleop	149	9
endgame	117	36
foul	0	0
total	302	45

Result

Final score

302 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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