Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.67 – 90.43

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.3 ±12.2

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -0.6Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 60.82Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 27.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.2 ±11

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 25.25Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 32.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 32.24Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3876, 4125, 4692

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3876, 4125, 4692

Auto

12.5 16%

Teleop

40.7 51%

Endgame

26.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6845, 4131, 1595

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6845, 4131, 1595

Auto

8.6 9%

Teleop

48.6 53%

Endgame

33.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.7pts

Blue projected score90.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.8
Score range: 55–123
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 181.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.3Season APEX225.2

12.5Auto8.6

40.7Teleop48.6

26.6Endgame33.8

68Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	31
teleop	56	54
endgame	28	30
foul	10	0
total	111	115

Result

Final score

111 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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