Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.84 – 114.92

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.4 ±9.8

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 206.53Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 34.56Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 27.75Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±12.7

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 11.82Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 61.78Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 41.32Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5468, 4061, 4131

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5468, 4061, 4131

Auto

49.9 19%

Teleop

150.2 57%

Endgame

62.9 24%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11347, 4980, 6443

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11347, 4980, 6443

Auto

14.0 12%

Teleop

70.5 59%

Endgame

34.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score268.8pts

Blue projected score114.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.9
Score range: 82–302
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 183.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.4Season APEX188.6

49.9Auto14

150.2Teleop70.5

62.9Endgame34.1

87Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	15
teleop	195	39
endgame	76	29
foul	0	5
total	313	88

Result

Final score

313 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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