Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.74 – 400.92

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 2.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.4 ±10

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 62.09Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 25Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 63.65Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.5 ±9.4

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 83.2Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 109.12Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 208.6Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4125, 6845, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4125, 6845, 2811

Auto

16.2 11%

Teleop

73.7 51%

Endgame

54.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10416, 3218, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10416, 3218, 9023

Auto

63.0 16%

Teleop

244.5 62%

Endgame

89.4 23%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.7pts

Blue projected score400.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -250.2
Score range: 118–434
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 181.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.4Season APEX549.5

16.2Auto63

73.7Teleop244.5

54.9Endgame89.4

86Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	83
teleop	85	191
endgame	30	131
foul	10	0
total	149	405

Result

Final score

149 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 2.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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