Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.39 – 79.02

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

213 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.4 ±11.6

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 62.19Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 65.37Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 73.83Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±12.2

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 80.39Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -4.62Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 3.25Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2147, 4513, 2926

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2147, 4513, 2926

Auto

22.4 11%

Teleop

130.4 65%

Endgame

47.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 753, 3876, 4060

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 753, 3876, 4060

Auto

12.9 16%

Teleop

56.3 71%

Endgame

10.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.4pts

Blue projected score79pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.4
Score range: 46–234
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 181.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.4Season APEX253.5

22.4Auto12.9

130.4Teleop56.3

47Endgame10.3

87Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	106	79
endgame	78	33
foul	10	5
total	213	139

Result

Final score

213 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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