Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.23 – 156.08

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.2 ±11.6

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 31.3Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 13.09Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 45.84Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.5 ±13.3

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 65.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 20.24Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 70.35Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1595, 9613, 6443

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1595, 9613, 6443

Auto

4.4 5%

Teleop

52.1 58%

Endgame

34.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10423, 5295, 4980

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10423, 5295, 4980

Auto

26.8 18%

Teleop

71.2 47%

Endgame

53.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.2pts

Blue projected score156.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.9
Score range: 57–189
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 184.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.2Season APEX196.5

4.4Auto26.8

52.1Teleop71.2

34.1Endgame53.1

40Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	25	64
endgame	16	22
foul	0	0
total	52	106

Result

Final score

52 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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