Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.27 – 252.42

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.1 ±12.1

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 40.69Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 44.56Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -1.98Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.8 ±11.2

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 62.26Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 2.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 187.55Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5920, 4980, 4060

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5920, 4980, 4060

Auto

16.8 21%

Teleop

42.6 53%

Endgame

21.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4125, 5295, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4125, 5295, 5468

Auto

41.5 17%

Teleop

139.3 57%

Endgame

64.0 26%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.3pts

Blue projected score252.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.1
Score range: 49–286
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.1Season APEX571.8

16.8Auto41.5

42.6Teleop139.3

21.7Endgame64

61Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	54
teleop	55	112
endgame	29	67
foul	0	30
total	104	263

Result

Final score

104 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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