Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.85 – 145.62

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

199 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412 ±10.4

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 72.13Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 25.61Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 61.11Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.8 ±9.5

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -9.23Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 55.24Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 99.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2926, 4131, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2926, 4131, 4125

Auto

19.5 13%

Teleop

76.1 49%

Endgame

59.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4060, 2811, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4060, 2811, 9450

Auto

22.9 16%

Teleop

85.3 60%

Endgame

35.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.9pts

Blue projected score145.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.2
Score range: 113–192
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 180.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412Season APEX403.8

19.5Auto22.9

76.1Teleop85.3

59.9Endgame35.1

98Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	16
teleop	113	145
endgame	81	66
foul	0	0
total	199	227

Result

Final score

199 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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