Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.62 – 195.18

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.2 ±11.6

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 85.72Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 22.19Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 80.71Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±12.2

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 24.07Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 64.69Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 106.42Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 753, 6845, 4980

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 753, 6845, 4980

Auto

29.1 15%

Teleop

111.3 59%

Endgame

49.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5295, 2147, 3218

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5295, 2147, 3218

Auto

28.8 15%

Teleop

111.0 58%

Endgame

50.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.6pts

Blue projected score195.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.6
Score range: 156–228
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 181.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.2Season APEX296.4

29.1Auto28.8

111.3Teleop111

49Endgame50

47Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	26
teleop	74	100
endgame	51	43
foul	5	5
total	150	174

Result

Final score

150 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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