Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.48 – 126.48

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.1 ±12.1

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 43.38Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 28.88Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 38.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.3 ±11.7

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 69.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 31.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 25.84Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6443, 4692, 5920

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6443, 4692, 5920

Auto

8.8 8%

Teleop

66.6 63%

Endgame

29.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10423, 1595, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10423, 1595, 4061

Auto

19.7 16%

Teleop

52.3 43%

Endgame

51.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.5pts

Blue projected score126.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16
Score range: 77–159
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 182.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.1Season APEX268.3

8.8Auto19.7

66.6Teleop52.3

29.7Endgame51

40Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	78	90
endgame	54	35
foul	0	0
total	148	150

Result

Final score

148 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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