Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

273.96 – 357.92

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 511.6 ±10

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 203.76Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 59.36Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 10.84Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579.2 ±8.8

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 64.73Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 211.7Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 81.49Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 4125, 3712

/ 100 compat

Projected

274 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 4125, 3712

Auto

41.3 15%

Teleop

159.0 60%

Endgame

66.3 25%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 5468, 2926

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2811, 5468, 2926

Auto

48.5 14%

Teleop

205.6 59%

Endgame

96.9 28%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score274pts

Blue projected score357.9pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84
Score range: 242–390
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 179.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

511.6Season APEX579.2

41.3Auto48.5

159Teleop205.6

66.3Endgame96.9

83Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	53
teleop	133	186
endgame	127	38
foul	0	0
total	286	277

Result

Final score

286 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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