Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.85 – 131.72

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±12.7

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 24Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 45.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -4.84Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.2 ±11

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 28.35Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 84.76Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 18.61Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5295, 6443, 4060

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5295, 6443, 4060

Auto

8.5 13%

Teleop

30.2 47%

Endgame

25.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1595, 10416, 9613

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1595, 10416, 9613

Auto

23.5 17%

Teleop

67.4 50%

Endgame

43.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score131.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.9
Score range: 32–165
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 182.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.8Season APEX257.2

8.5Auto23.5

30.2Teleop67.4

25Endgame43.4

103Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	4
teleop	26	85
endgame	10	47
foul	0	15
total	43	151

Result

Final score

43 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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