Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

328.3 – 105.77

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520 ±9.4

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 32.6Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 207.28Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 88.42Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213 ±11.6

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 17.51Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 33.49Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 54.77Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4061, 9023, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4061, 9023, 753

Auto

45.5 14%

Teleop

222.7 68%

Endgame

57.5 18%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3712, 4131, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3712, 4131, 4513

Auto

16.8 17%

Teleop

76.1 76%

Endgame

7.8 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score328.3pts

Blue projected score105.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 222.5
Score range: 73–361
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 181.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520Season APEX213

45.5Auto16.8

222.7Teleop76.1

57.5Endgame7.8

33Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	13
teleop	152	49
endgame	107	22
foul	5	0
total	315	84

Result

Final score

315 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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