Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.36 – 328.99

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

262 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.3 ±11.4

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 192.18Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 15.96Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 24.22Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.2 ±9.8

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 106.17Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 114.14Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 108.68Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 11347, 9613

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9023, 11347, 9613

Auto

34.1 15%

Teleop

119.9 53%

Endgame

71.8 32%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9450, 753, 3218

/ 100 compat

Projected

329 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9450, 753, 3218

Auto

50.6 16%

Teleop

202.5 62%

Endgame

73.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.4pts

Blue projected score329pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.6
Score range: 198–363
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 574 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.3Season APEX484.2

34.1Auto50.6

119.9Teleop202.5

71.8Endgame73.2

47Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	50
teleop	148	223
endgame	69	34
foul	10	5
total	262	312

Result

Final score

262 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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