Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.86 – 227.64

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.8 ±10.7

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 69.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -28.8Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 198.61Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.3 ±12.2

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 27.97Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 82.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 117.57Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9450, 3876, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9450, 3876, 5468

Auto

45.3 20%

Teleop

140.8 62%

Endgame

42.6 19%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9613, 10423, 3218

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9613, 10423, 3218

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

127.0 56%

Endgame

65.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.9pts

Blue projected score227.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 196–271
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 180.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.8Season APEX233.3

45.3Auto32.7

140.8Teleop127

42.6Endgame65.7

13Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	45
teleop	221	66
endgame	56	54
foul	0	5
total	341	170

Result

Final score

341 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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