Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.77 – 166.87

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.4 ±11

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 65.56Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 36.5Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 14.71Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.9 ±11

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 27.23Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 90.53Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 49.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4125, 1595, 3712

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4125, 1595, 3712

Auto

22.0 20%

Teleop

52.3 47%

Endgame

37.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4131, 753, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4131, 753, 4513

Auto

22.8 14%

Teleop

133.2 82%

Endgame

6.4 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.8pts

Blue projected score166.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.1
Score range: 84–200
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 182.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.4Season APEX317.9

22Auto22.8

52.3Teleop133.2

37.2Endgame6.4

97Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	26
teleop	50	120
endgame	34	34
foul	0	0
total	88	180

Result

Final score

88 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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