Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112 – 176.26

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 56.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.8 ±12.2

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 40.69Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 67.03Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 4.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±10

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 92.17Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 55.35Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 28.74Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8532, 10416, 5295

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8532, 10416, 5295

Auto

22.2 20%

Teleop

40.7 38%

Endgame

45.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2926, 2811, 5920

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2926, 2811, 5920

Auto

17.4 10%

Teleop

109.9 64%

Endgame

44.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score176.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.3
Score range: 79–209
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 181.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.8Season APEX336.4

22.2Auto17.4

40.7Teleop109.9

45.6Endgame44.2

75Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	2
teleop	121	103
endgame	58	79
foul	0	0
total	218	184

Result

Final score

218 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 56.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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