Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.47 – 63.88

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.5 ±12.2

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX -13.95Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 27.3Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 54.12Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120.3 ±12.7

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -22.69Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 46.49Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 40.08Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11347, 4061, 2147

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11347, 4061, 2147

Auto

-1.9 0%

Teleop

33.3 54%

Endgame

30.5 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3876, 6845, 9613

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3876, 6845, 9613

Auto

16.9 27%

Teleop

37.0 58%

Endgame

9.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.5pts

Blue projected score63.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.6
Score range: 31–100
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 185.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.5Season APEX120.3

-1.9Auto16.9

33.3Teleop37

30.5Endgame9.6

98Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	14
teleop	86	12
endgame	33	1
foul	0	0
total	151	27

Result

Final score

151 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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