Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362.85 – 312.87

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

253 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.2 ±9.5

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 49.83Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 226.74Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 86.28Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441 ±11.7

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 75.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 42.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 194.29Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4692, 9023, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4692, 9023, 9450

Auto

45.8 13%

Teleop

229.7 65%

Endgame

79.3 22%

Strengths

· 9023 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10423, 6443, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10423, 6443, 5468

Auto

37.5 12%

Teleop

169.9 55%

Endgame

101.4 33%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score362.9pts

Blue projected score312.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50
Score range: 280–396
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 180.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.2Season APEX441

45.8Auto37.5

229.7Teleop169.9

79.3Endgame101.4

26Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	54
teleop	127	192
endgame	67	82
foul	10	5
total	253	333

Result

Final score

253 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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