Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.51 – 138.64

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.8 ±12.8

5295Aldernating Current

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 5.76Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 67.71Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11347Bronco Brigade

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX -14.96Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±11.6

9613Lion's Byte

Season APEX 23.2Event APEX 30.17Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 36.8Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 71.67Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5295, 2926, 11347

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5295, 2926, 11347

Auto

8.4 17%

Teleop

-5.0 0%

Endgame

47.5 93%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9613, 4513, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9613, 4513, 4125

Auto

25.4 18%

Teleop

91.3 66%

Endgame

20.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.5pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.1
Score range: 26–172
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 183.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.8Season APEX295.4

8.4Auto25.4

-5Teleop91.3

47.5Endgame20.9

21Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	35
teleop	65	83
endgame	32	27
foul	0	15
total	109	160

Result

Final score

109 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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