Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.65 – 186.14

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.3 ±11.6

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 94.95Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 39.66Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 70.04Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±11.1

6845River Bots

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 55.65Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5920VIKotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 35.64Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 94.85Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 753, 6443, 4692

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 753, 6443, 4692

Auto

22.7 11%

Teleop

134.7 66%

Endgame

45.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6845, 5920, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6845, 5920, 9450

Auto

17.1 9%

Teleop

136.8 72%

Endgame

34.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.7pts

Blue projected score186.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.5
Score range: 153–238
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 185.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.3Season APEX307.5

22.7Auto17.1

134.7Teleop136.8

45.3Endgame34.8

75Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	35
teleop	121	61
endgame	41	13
foul	0	15
total	169	124

Result

Final score

169 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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