Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
267.86 – 95.1
90%10%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
309 – 161
Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 410 ±12
Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -21.12Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 74.13Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 214.85Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.5 ±12.1
Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 36.58Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -17.42Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 75.94Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3876, 10423, 9023
76
/ 100 compatProjected
267.9 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 3876, 10423, 9023
Auto
26.9 10%
Teleop
189.6 71%
Endgame
51.5 19%
Strengths
- · 9023 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2147, 4060, 4980
42
/ 100 compatProjected
95.1 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2147, 4060, 4980
Auto
19.5 21%
Teleop
26.8 29%
Endgame
44.9 49%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.9
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score267.9pts
Blue projected score95.1pts
Red win probability90%
Event bonus sample138alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 65%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 172.8
- Score range
- 62–301
- Upset likelihood
- 10%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
410Season APEX195.5
26.9Auto19.5
189.6Teleop26.8
51.5Endgame44.9
70Consistency162
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 49 | 10 |
| teleop | 195 | 82 |
| endgame | 60 | 69 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 309 | 161 |
Result
Final score
309 – 161
Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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