Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.33 – 128.22

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.7 ±12.1

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 67.67Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 62.63Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 43.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±11.6

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 26.71Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 73.66Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 27.85Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2147, 8532, 6443

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2147, 8532, 6443

Auto

27.0 16%

Teleop

90.7 52%

Endgame

55.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4692, 2926, 3712

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4692, 2926, 3712

Auto

15.0 12%

Teleop

58.0 47%

Endgame

51.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.3pts

Blue projected score128.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.1
Score range: 94–207
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.7Season APEX207.1

27Auto15

90.7Teleop58

55.7Endgame51

79Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	18
teleop	65	74
endgame	51	38
foul	0	5
total	124	135

Result

Final score

124 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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