Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.36 – 273.17

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.4 ±9.4

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 92.07Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 66.21Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 19.08Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.5 ±10.5

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 33.89Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 180.53Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8532Classified

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 58.75Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3218, 2811, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3218, 2811, 4061

Auto

29.0 16%

Teleop

111.5 62%

Endgame

40.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1595, 5468, 8532

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1595, 5468, 8532

Auto

52.1 20%

Teleop

138.5 52%

Endgame

75.7 28%

Strengths

· 5468 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.4pts

Blue projected score273.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.8
Score range: 145–305
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 178.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.4Season APEX472.5

29Auto52.1

111.5Teleop138.5

40.2Endgame75.7

111Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	58
teleop	116	139
endgame	41	96
foul	20	0
total	213	293

Result

Final score

213 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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