Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.09 – 202

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

182 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330 ±11

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 69.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3712RoboCats

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 8.61Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 99.36Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.2 ±10.5

6443AEMBOT

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 37.1Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 89.76Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 75.14Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10416, 3712, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10416, 3712, 753

Auto

29.8 17%

Teleop

131.0 73%

Endgame

19.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6443, 9450, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6443, 9450, 4125

Auto

30.1 16%

Teleop

86.0 46%

Endgame

72.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.1pts

Blue projected score202pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.9
Score range: 145–234
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330Season APEX457.2

29.8Auto30.1

131Teleop86

19.7Endgame72.7

104Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	132	160
endgame	28	48
foul	5	0
total	182	226

Result

Final score

182 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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