Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.75 – 116.42

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.6 ±12.7

4060Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX -0.8Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 87.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4513Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 75.9Event APEX 67.95Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.9 ±11.6

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 36.2Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 58.74Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 21.48Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4060, 10423, 4513

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4060, 10423, 4513

Auto

12.7 8%

Teleop

73.4 48%

Endgame

66.6 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2147, 4692, 4131

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2147, 4692, 4131

Auto

9.8 9%

Teleop

58.5 51%

Endgame

46.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.8pts

Blue projected score116.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.3
Score range: 83–188
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 181.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.6Season APEX236.9

12.7Auto9.8

73.4Teleop58.5

66.6Endgame46.8

66Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	3
teleop	53	52
endgame	0	53
foul	5	15
total	76	123

Result

Final score

76 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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