Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.24 – 190.31

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.1 ±11

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 51.33Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 52.71Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 12.2Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±11

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 79.92Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4692Metal Mallards

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 57.55Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 52.84Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10416, 4125, 2147

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10416, 4125, 2147

Auto

6.7 6%

Teleop

71.8 66%

Endgame

30.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3218, 4692, 4131

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3218, 4692, 4131

Auto

21.3 11%

Teleop

111.3 60%

Endgame

52.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.2pts

Blue projected score190.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.1
Score range: 86–220
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.1Season APEX274.7

6.7Auto21.3

71.8Teleop111.3

30.1Endgame52.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	32
teleop	103	119
endgame	70	52
foul	0	0
total	202	203

Result

Final score

202 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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