Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
96.54 – 138
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
61 – 123
Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 99.8Event APEX -3.22Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 51.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 48.25Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.4 ±12.2
Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 45.18Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 120Event APEX 67.24Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 25.58Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4061, 5295, 6845
48
/ 100 compatProjected
96.5 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 4061, 5295, 6845
Auto
20.2 22%
Teleop
34.0 37%
Endgame
38.4 41%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4980, 2926, 3876
56
/ 100 compatProjected
138 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4980, 2926, 3876
Auto
19.5 14%
Teleop
96.7 71%
Endgame
19.7 14%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score96.5pts
Blue projected score138pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample138alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 69%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -41.5
- Score range
- 68–167
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
205.2Season APEX231.4
20.2Auto19.5
34Teleop96.7
38.4Endgame19.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 33 |
| teleop | 20 | 66 |
| endgame | 23 | 24 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 61 | 123 |
Result
Final score
61 – 123
Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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