Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.58 – 123.51

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±10.8

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 33.84Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 84.54Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 64.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.4 ±11.7

3876Mabton LugNutz

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 5.94Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 43.11Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 74.46Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4131, 2811, 10423

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4131, 2811, 10423

Auto

18.8 11%

Teleop

100.7 57%

Endgame

58.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3876, 4061, 10416

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3876, 4061, 10416

Auto

26.7 22%

Teleop

77.9 64%

Endgame

16.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.6pts

Blue projected score123.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.1
Score range: 90–217
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 189.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.8Season APEX301.4

18.8Auto26.7

100.7Teleop77.9

58.2Endgame16.7

84Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	5
teleop	93	71
endgame	56	3
foul	5	0
total	171	79

Result

Final score

171 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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