Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.68 – 108.73

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±11.6

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 35.89Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 82.04Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 37.75Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.7 ±12.1

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 36.5Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 49.03Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 23.2Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3070, 4512, 9442

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3070, 4512, 9442

Auto

18.5 13%

Teleop

77.0 53%

Endgame

48.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3786, 7627, 3681

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3786, 7627, 3681

Auto

21.5 22%

Teleop

43.4 45%

Endgame

30.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.7pts

Blue projected score108.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47
Score range: 86–179
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 128.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.5Season APEX234.7

18.5Auto21.5

77Teleop43.4

48.5Endgame30.8

14Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	34
teleop	112	42
endgame	44	38
foul	0	5
total	183	119

Result

Final score

183 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Match videos

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