Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
204.91 – 170.1
61%39%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
115 – 246
Prediction missed · off by 82.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±10.5
Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 112.81Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36Event APEX 0.74Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 91.36Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.6 ±10.5
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 24.29Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 91.94Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 53.87Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2910, 5941, 10079
81
/ 100 compatProjected
204.9 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 2910, 5941, 10079
Auto
34.7 17%
Teleop
113.6 55%
Endgame
58.2 28%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2903, 2522, 488
77
/ 100 compatProjected
170.1 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 2903, 2522, 488
Auto
40.6 25%
Teleop
80.7 49%
Endgame
43.5 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.23
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score204.9pts
Blue projected score170.1pts
Red win probability61%
Event bonus sample152alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 34.8
- Score range
- 147–228
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
562.9Season APEX431.6
34.7Auto40.6
113.6Teleop80.7
58.2Endgame43.5
0Consistency1
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 51 |
| teleop | 82 | 143 |
| endgame | 0 | 52 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 115 | 246 |
Result
Final score
115 – 246
Prediction missed · off by 82.9 pts
Match videos
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