Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.27 – 144.92

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 106.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 8.42Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 109.28Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 92.57Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±11.6

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 33.08Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 78.66Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 33.18Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 4089, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 4089, 4915

Auto

44.5 22%

Teleop

120.8 59%

Endgame

40.3 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3070, 4512, 9442

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3070, 4512, 9442

Auto

17.9 13%

Teleop

74.0 55%

Endgame

42.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.3pts

Blue projected score144.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.4
Score range: 122–233
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 569 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX276.5

44.5Auto17.9

120.8Teleop74

40.3Endgame42.1

9Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	23
teleop	196	100
endgame	96	82
foul	5	15
total	349	220

Result

Final score

349 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 106.9 pts

Match videos

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