Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.4 – 102.42

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.5 ±11.6

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 15.47Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 51.53Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 55.4Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.7 ±12.1

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 28.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 8.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2930Sonic Squirrels

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 64.71Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3826, 1778, 4682

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 1778, 4682

Auto

18.0 14%

Teleop

75.9 61%

Endgame

30.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1899, 4180, 2930

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1899, 4180, 2930

Auto

16.9 18%

Teleop

50.6 53%

Endgame

27.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.4pts

Blue projected score102.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20
Score range: 79–145
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 125.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.5Season APEX217.7

18Auto16.9

75.9Teleop50.6

30.7Endgame27.8

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	25
teleop	73	42
endgame	41	38
foul	5	5
total	148	110

Result

Final score

148 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts

Match videos

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