Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.4 – 99.71

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.6 ±10.5

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 18.98Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 86.98Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 48.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.7 ±12.1

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 32.78Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7627Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 46.6Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 20.33Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2903, 2522, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 2522, 488

Auto

38.1 26%

Teleop

72.3 49%

Endgame

37.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3786, 7627, 3681

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3786, 7627, 3681

Auto

22.2 25%

Teleop

37.9 42%

Endgame

29.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.4pts

Blue projected score99.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.7
Score range: 78–176
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.6Season APEX234.7

38.1Auto22.2

72.3Teleop37.9

37.3Endgame29.3

14Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	25
teleop	125	60
endgame	78	40
foul	0	0
total	256	125

Result

Final score

256 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts

Match videos

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