Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.22 – 130.28

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±10.5

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 111.38Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -0.55Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 89.39Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.2 ±11.6

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 78.96Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 15.49Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 35.83Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 5941, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 5941, 10079

Auto

33.5 16%

Teleop

107.1 53%

Endgame

62.7 31%

Strengths

· 2910 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9036, 9317, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9036, 9317, 8051

Auto

29.6 26%

Teleop

56.5 49%

Endgame

29.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.2pts

Blue projected score130.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.9
Score range: 108–222
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.9Season APEX335.2

33.5Auto29.6

107.1Teleop56.5

62.7Endgame29.2

20Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	30
teleop	156	80
endgame	49	24
foul	5	5
total	253	139

Result

Final score

253 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Match videos

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