Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.45 – 107.71

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 8.81Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 110.48Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 93.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.5 ±11.6

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 9.6Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 47.53Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 50.58Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 4089, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 4089, 4915

Auto

44.0 21%

Teleop

125.3 60%

Endgame

39.7 19%

Strengths

· 4089 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3826, 1778, 4682

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 1778, 4682

Auto

17.4 16%

Teleop

65.7 59%

Endgame

27.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.5pts

Blue projected score107.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.7
Score range: 86–234
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 121.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX283.5

44Auto17.4

125.3Teleop65.7

39.7Endgame27.5

3Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	22
teleop	117	127
endgame	47	46
foul	10	0
total	224	195

Result

Final score

224 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Match videos

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