Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.4 – 190.17

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.6 ±10.5

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 28.06Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 95.65Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 56.69Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.7 ±11.2

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 109.33Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2980Whidbey Island Wildcats

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -7.5Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 88.34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2903, 2522, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 2522, 488

Auto

38.4 22%

Teleop

88.9 51%

Endgame

47.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2910, 2980, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 2980, 10079

Auto

36.9 20%

Teleop

98.8 53%

Endgame

50.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.4pts

Blue projected score190.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 156–214
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 132.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.6Season APEX590.7

38.4Auto36.9

88.9Teleop98.8

47.6Endgame50.3

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	28
teleop	86	145
endgame	53	81
foul	10	0
total	188	254

Result

Final score

188 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Match videos

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