Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.32 – 158.79

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±10.5

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 108.44Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -4.29Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 87.17Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.5 ±11.6

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 36.7Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 83.05Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 39.04Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 5941, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 5941, 10079

Auto

34.4 18%

Teleop

107.8 56%

Endgame

50.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3070, 4512, 9442

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3070, 4512, 9442

Auto

19.6 13%

Teleop

81.6 55%

Endgame

47.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.3pts

Blue projected score158.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.5
Score range: 135–215
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 131.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.9Season APEX276.5

34.4Auto19.6

107.8Teleop81.6

50.1Endgame47.6

1Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	32
teleop	137	115
endgame	26	70
foul	15	0
total	221	217

Result

Final score

221 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Match videos

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