Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.87 – 181.91

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 16.32Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 116.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 98.72Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.6 ±10.5

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 28.53Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 96.32Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 57.06Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 4089, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 4089, 4915

Auto

45.1 20%

Teleop

132.3 58%

Endgame

49.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2903, 2522, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 2522, 488

Auto

41.8 24%

Teleop

90.4 51%

Endgame

45.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.9pts

Blue projected score181.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50
Score range: 159–255
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.4Season APEX431.6

45.1Auto41.8

132.3Teleop90.4

49.6Endgame45.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	19
teleop	150	84
endgame	50	64
foul	0	10
total	258	177

Result

Final score

258 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Match videos

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