Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.32 – 124.67

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.9 ±10.5

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 108.32Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX -4.57Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 86.57Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.5 ±11.6

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 16.92Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 52.29Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4682CyBears

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 55.46Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 5941, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2910, 5941, 10079

Auto

34.2 18%

Teleop

108.1 56%

Endgame

49.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3826, 1778, 4682

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 1778, 4682

Auto

19.5 16%

Teleop

74.1 59%

Endgame

32.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.3pts

Blue projected score124.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.6
Score range: 102–213
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.9Season APEX283.5

34.2Auto19.5

108.1Teleop74.1

49.2Endgame32.1

4Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	51
teleop	109	104
endgame	57	39
foul	0	0
total	204	194

Result

Final score

204 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts

Match videos

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