Qualification · Qualification 8
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
129.39 – 77
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
204 – 186
Prediction correct · off by 91.8 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 519.6 ±11.1
Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 29.35Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 48Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 52.04Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.5 ±11.1
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 12Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 45.76Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 19.24Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3786, 7627, 2910
74
/ 100 compatProjected
129.4 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3786, 7627, 2910
Auto
21.1 16%
Teleop
54.3 42%
Endgame
55.2 42%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2903, 2522, 2930
53
/ 100 compatProjected
77 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 2903, 2522, 2930
Auto
19.9 29%
Teleop
21.3 31%
Endgame
26.5 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score129.4pts
Blue projected score77pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample152alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 52.4
- Score range
- 58–148
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
519.6Season APEX391.5
21.1Auto19.9
54.3Teleop21.3
55.2Endgame26.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 24 | 41 |
| teleop | 70 | 107 |
| endgame | 85 | 33 |
| foul | 25 | 5 |
| total | 204 | 186 |
Result
Final score
204 – 186
Prediction correct · off by 91.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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