Qualification · Qualification 60
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
142.67 – 63.42
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
185 – 129
Prediction correct · off by 54 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 403 ±11.1
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 16Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 107.97Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 18.7Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.3 ±11.6
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 43.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 10.69Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 9.51Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2903, 4089, 3681
69
/ 100 compatProjected
142.7 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2903, 4089, 3681
Auto
38.1 28%
Teleop
75.2 54%
Endgame
25.2 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7627, 4131, 9317
35
/ 100 compatProjected
63.4 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 7627, 4131, 9317
Auto
27.5 47%
Teleop
23.6 40%
Endgame
8.0 14%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score142.7pts
Blue projected score63.4pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample152alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 79.2
- Score range
- 41–165
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
403Season APEX255.3
38.1Auto27.5
75.2Teleop23.6
25.2Endgame8
4Consistency10
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 26 |
| teleop | 101 | 56 |
| endgame | 37 | 27 |
| foul | 15 | 20 |
| total | 185 | 129 |
Result
Final score
185 – 129
Prediction correct · off by 54 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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