Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.2 – 51.21

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.1 ±9.8

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 57.22Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 9.96Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 124.02Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±11.6

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 5.5Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 23.42Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 22.29Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 488, 4131, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 488, 4131, 4089

Auto

42.7 23%

Teleop

104.3 56%

Endgame

39.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4180, 1294, 3681

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4180, 1294, 3681

Auto

14.7 35%

Teleop

22.4 53%

Endgame

4.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.2pts

Blue projected score51.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140
Score range: 26–216
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 138.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.1Season APEX222.6

42.7Auto14.7

104.3Teleop22.4

39.3Endgame4.9

18Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	3
teleop	108	12
endgame	20	10
foul	15	10
total	188	35

Result

Final score

188 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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