Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.47 – 231.09

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.6 ±12.1

3786Chargers

Season APEX 86.2Event APEX 34.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 12.73Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3070Team Pronto 3070

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 36.83Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 613.4 ±9.9

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 93.28Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 99.17Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 38.64Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3786, 4180, 3070

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3786, 4180, 3070

Auto

6.7 8%

Teleop

41.4 51%

Endgame

33.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2522, 4915, 1899

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2522, 4915, 1899

Auto

39.4 17%

Teleop

136.7 60%

Endgame

51.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.5pts

Blue projected score231.1pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.6
Score range: 62–253
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.6Season APEX613.4

6.7Auto39.4

41.4Teleop136.7

33.6Endgame51.9

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	30
teleop	18	68
endgame	21	65
foul	10	5
total	64	168

Result

Final score

64 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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